Building scenarios of future marine ecosystems under a global change context: moving forward

Activity Overview

Type: Foresight Workshop
Start Date: June 8, 2015
End Date: June 10, 2015
Venue: MARBEC, Sète (France)
Contact: Jeroen Steenbeek
E-mail: jeroen.steenbeek [at] gmail.com

Funding Call: EuroMarine 2014 Call for Proposals
Decision Body: EuroMarine Steering Committee
Total Budget: €15,000
Funds Granted: €15,000

Manager(s): Jeroen Steenbeek, Marta Coll Monton, Philippe Cury

This foresight workshop will bring together 15 experienced modellers from across the globe to form a core group with the aim of advancing the understanding of marine ecosystem dynamics under a global change context. The following topics will be discussed in the workshop at IRD in France in June 2015: current and foreseen needs for scenario building; the scientific capacity required to address scenario building challenges; tools inventory; current initiatives and present shortcomings; potential collaboration and needed developments; and the potential for the establishment of a multidisciplinary scenario laboratory.

The workshop aims to provide needed guidelines and essential reflections on the current status and future needs of scenario building and visualisation for marine ecosystems under a global change context. The outputs of the workshop will be the establishment of a long term collaboration with key players in the field, a position paper to be published in a peer review journal and an action plan on how to advance the building of a scenario laboratory in Sete, France.

Workshop Participants: Building scenarios of future marine ecosystems under a global change context: moving forward

Building scenarios of social-ecological systems is a multi-faceted interdisciplinary and multi-sectoral challenge where scientists need to venture beyond their traditional roles of solution providers and tool builders. During the workshop the current status of scenario building was discussed and participants summarized their expertise identifying positive and negative elements related to their experiences with scenario building. The 17 participants formed a core group of experienced modellers from 8 countries. All participants contributed their tools and expertise to develop a Mediterranean case study, involving stakeholders and experts to provide a shared understanding of all elements of the system and how they could evolve. This can provide a synthesis across disciplines and other quantitative modelling platforms.

The outline of a report and paper were formed, and funding opportunities and future collaborations such as Blue Growth calls were discussed. A future scenario laboratory in Sète, France plans to become a central place to organise workshops with stakeholders and experts, and a hub of development of qualitative and quantitative modelling activities. As a network of experts delivering components to the scenario building process, the workshop group intends to pursue scenario building funding calls and to meet soon to further develop ideas that emerged during the 2015 EuroMarine meeting.

Update - October 2016

Results from this workshop were presented at a conference: Dambacher, K. Alexander, F. Boschetti, V. Christensen, M. Coll, P. Cury, B. Fulton, S. Heymans, A. Hobday, X. Keijser, J. Kenter, S. Lucey, S. Mackinson, C. Mullon, L. J. Shannon, J. Steenbeek, S. Villasante. 2016. Strategies and tools for visioning alternative futures for marine ecosystems and coastal communities. MSEAS Conference (ICES) - Understanding marine socio-ecological systems, 30 May – 3 June 2016, Brest, France.
A paper is under preparation, to be submitted soon.

Update - October 2017

The paper has stalled, as has the possibility to establish a scenario laboratory. The workshop was very valuable in establishing new interdisciplinary collaborations between workshops participants; some of the outcomes were continued at smaller scales between the participants various research interests. The direct collaboration generated between the four workshop participating organisations focuses on the integration of scientific models in the next generation of the Maritime Spatial Planning Challenge 2050 serious game (www.mspchallenge.info/about-us.html). Two serious games are scheduled to be released this year, one for the North Sea and one for the Celtic Sea. This new work is a direct result of the EuroMarine workshop.